Week 6
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Electoral Polling (Part 1)
Instructions: Please read the following items:
Please read the following items:•“Election Polling” Pew Center for the People & the Press, http://www.people-press.org/methodology/election-polling/ and
- “Our Survey Methodology in Detail,” Pew Center for the People & the Press, http://www.pewresearch.org/methodology/u-s-survey-research/our-survey-methodology-in-detail/Please review at least three (3) recent polling results reported at realclearpolitics.com for the 2016 Presidential race http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/
Please review the most recent analysis at the University of Virginia – Center for Politics for the 2016 Presidential race http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-president/
After reading the corresponding Week 6 Module in Etudes (which is essential to completing this homework), please respond succinctly to the questions below (and include the questions in your response):
- Is an election poll done by Pew Center for the People & the Press going to be better (in other words, more accurate) than a poll done by a cable news channel that asks its viewers to call up to let the cable news channel know how its viewers are going to be voting. Why or why not?
- How would you assess the likely accuracy of an election poll that was conducted by calling only land-line telephone numbers? How about an election poll that called only cell phone telephone numbers? How about a poll that called both land line and cell phone telephone numbers? Which kind of poll do you think would be the most accurate?
- Based upon your review of the polling data as reported at real.clear.politics for the 2016 Presidential Race, whom do the polls indicate will be elected President in 2016? By what kind of margin? (for example, by 51%-49%? by 75%-25%? by 60%-40%? etc.) (NOTE: You’ll want to look at a poll marked “General Election,” and use the most recent poll available)
- Respond to the same question as number 3 above, except applied to your review of the analysis provided at the University of Virginia – Center for Politics. (NOTE: If the UVa – Center for Politics web-site is just reporting electoral vote projections, use this data in your response to this question to predict the Presidential winner, and by how many electoral votes (for example, X will win by an electoral vote margin of 271-267 votes))
- There has been some discussion about whether polling itself influences the election outcome, and some countries (Greece, Israel, Philippines) ban the public reporting of election polling results in the period immediately before an election on a theory that coverage of poll results can inappropriately influence the ultimate election result (see http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2008/01/what_if_we_banned_polling.single.html). Do you think banning election polls in the immediate run-up to an election is a good idea or not? Why?
